AgSTAR Data Signals a Maturing U.S. Biogas Market

Updated EPA AgSTAR data sheds light on biogas performance trends, shaping how developers, buyers, and investors assess risk and scale

16 Jan 2026

The U.S. biogas industry is under a new kind of scrutiny. It is not about steel prices or zoning fights. It is about proof.

Freshly updated data from the EPA’s AgSTAR program offers one of the clearest looks yet at how manure-based biogas projects are actually performing across the country. The numbers do not impose rules or redraw policy lines. Instead, they reflect a market that has moved beyond experiments and into daily operations.

With hundreds of anaerobic digestion systems now online, developers and investors can study real operating histories rather than projections. Output consistency, uptime, and verified emissions reductions are no longer abstract promises. They are measurable traits that increasingly shape who gets financed and who wins long-term offtake deals.

That shift is changing behavior across the value chain. Renewable natural gas buyers are becoming more selective, favoring projects that can back up claims with data. Financiers are leaning harder on comparable performance metrics to assess risk. In a crowded market, transparency has become a quiet competitive edge.

Industry observers say this reflects maturation, not regulation. AgSTAR does not set standards or crown winners. Its role is simpler and more powerful: showing what typical performance looks like and where projects tend to stumble. As RNG is framed more often as a methane-reduction tool, the ability to quantify outcomes carries strategic weight.

The data is also reinforcing interest in scale. Developers are increasingly pursuing portfolio models built on repeatable designs and shared operational lessons. That approach has fueled partnerships, acquisitions, and platform-style growth, where companies expand networks rather than betting on one-off projects. Vanguard Renewables is frequently cited as a case study in this model.

None of this erases the sector’s challenges. Pipeline access remains uneven. Permitting can still stretch timelines. Questions linger about how quickly RNG can scale to meet climate ambitions.

Still, momentum is unmistakable. By publishing consistent, credible insights, the AgSTAR program is making the biogas market easier to understand and easier to finance. RNG is no longer a fringe idea. It is a measurable business, and the next phase of growth will likely belong to those who know their numbers best.