EPA RFS Shift Sets off Race for Compliant RNG

EPA’s proposed RFS update is accelerating RNG investment, as developers prioritize audit-ready strategies to attract financing, contracts, and credit confidence

15 Jan 2026

Renewable natural gas is back in the spotlight, and this time the stakes feel higher.

In June 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency released a proposed update to the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2026 and 2027. The program governs renewable fuel blending in US transportation and shapes the value of federal fuel credits that underpin many RNG projects. EPA is expected to finalize the rule in early 2026, though no firm timeline has been set.

That uncertainty is already reshaping behavior across the biogas market. Developers want to move quickly, but investors and offtakers are signaling a clear preference for projects that can stand up to scrutiny. The result is a growing premium on what many now call compliance-ready RNG.

Instead of racing to break ground, developers are paying closer attention to proof. New projects are being designed with verification in mind, from tighter measurement of gas volumes to clearer documentation of feedstock origin. These steps can raise upfront costs, but proponents say they improve credit confidence and make financing easier to secure.

Scale is part of the story too. Chevron-backed Brightmark RNG Holdings recently announced first gas deliveries from 10 Midwest projects, underscoring how multi-site development is becoming a favored path to growth.

Large energy companies continue to shape expectations. BP’s acquisition of Archaea Energy in 2022 signaled long-term interest in US bioenergy, even as the company adjusts its broader strategy. Clean Energy Fuels is also expanding RNG use through new supply agreements, pointing to steady demand from fleets and other major fuel consumers.

Still, risks remain. Shifting RFS targets and prolonged approval timelines could slow investment or push up the cost of capital. Many developers, however, see a different outcome. If compliance rules tighten, transparency and verification may become decisive advantages.

As EPA’s final decision approaches, RNG developers are entering a defining moment. Compliance is no longer just a requirement. It is fast becoming a differentiator.